It’s fascinating to see that, while traditional markets tend to go up on bad news (nowadays), the crypto space isn’t reacting to positive news anymore.
If you’re trading equities and things go bad, you’d expect central banks to step in and flush the market with cash — printing money to support the economy. It’s a nonsensical way to think of value, but lately that’s been the dynamic.
Conversely, it looks like BTC isn’t going up when positive news comes through. My guess is: the rally has been significant and fast; had we heard of the latest MicroStrategy comment back down at 10K we would’ve gone up but, now that we’ve reached the 19K’s again and failed to breach higher, the positive news seems reactive instead of supportive.
Right now BTC is at $18,375, neither massively up or down relative to recent price levels. What I note though is that in the past days we’ve had plenty of great development that should’ve pushed price up. Just yesterday we heard that:
- DBS will offer a digital exchange that will begin trading crypto ‘next week’
- The Bitwise Top 10 Crypto Index started trading publicly yesterday (BITW)
- Paxos filed an application with US regulators to obtain a national bank charter
- JP Morgan used its JPMCoin to conduct a blockchain-based repo transaction
Where is our 20K? Most likely, some of the whales and miners are selling. The current price level is about 170% from Jan 1st and some large holders must be taking the chance, dubious of the market breaking higher. By the way, did you see that the miners’ position index hit a three-year high (courtesy of CryptoQuant)?
It’s interesting to look at alts as well. They’ve been underperforming BTC throughout the rally but it’s worth noting that, on a yearly basis, many of them actually offered greater returns (ETH, LINK, XMR, ADA, etc.
The BTC Dominance Index is stagnating at 63. The question for alts is whether this is a step up for further downside (BTC dominance wise) or a consolidation for BTC to outperform even further.