Morning Update — January 14th — Macro and Crypto Markets
In traditional markets, we see a simple continuation of the previous session’s dynamics. The S&P rose slightly after some intraday swings. Investors bought some more treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield down, but still above 1%. Gold is stagnating at $1,850.
BTC has been more dynamic and bullish. After four down sessions and a pullback that took us more than 25% below the all-time high, BTC bounced back. The day is closing 10% up, at $37,500.
While ETH, LTC, XMR, and ADA are up just 7%, other alts are riding the risk-on tilt and outperforming BTC. I’m thinking of LINK, which rose 14% on the day. ZEC rose 20% after a +10% in the previous session. Finally, DOT rose 33%.
In regards to BTC and the crypto space in general, with the 30K to 32K level having been the buying point for many institutions, one would expect that level to be well guarded. With the recent move up, another wave of buying and another attempt toward 40K isn’t inconceivable. It’s also worth noting that stablecoins are moving onto exchanges, suggesting capital that is preparing to trade.
On a longer-term basis, it’s also nice to see that whales continue to withdraw from exchanges, as the number of wallets holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin since Christmas rose sharply.
More onto the derivatives side: On January 29th, we’ll have another massive option expiry, at around $3 billion notional. Watch out for any volatility pre and post expiry.
Lastly, tomorrow we will see Bitfinex and Tether submitting documents to the New York state attorney general about their financial relationship. The consequences of any wrongdoing by the duo might have unexpected consequences on the whole crypto space. Stay tuned.