Justin d’Anethan

Jan 19, 2021

2 min read

Morning‌‌ ‌‌Update — January ‌‌19th — Macro and Crypto Markets

Muted volumes and muted trading during MLK day (meaning equities, bonds and OTC markets are closed in the US).

Crypto markets are opened, though, but moves are also muted for a different reason. BTC prices seem to be narrowing into a -bullish?- pennant with a mid-line at about $36,000.

From the all-time high, tops have been gradually lower; then from the $30,500, lows have been gradually higher. Naturally, this type of formation leads to an explosive move once prices break-out, the question is whether it’ll be up… or down.

During this BTC stagnation, one could’ve expected alt traders to delight, as it would give an opportunity for smaller cap coins to play catch up. That hasn’t happened during the last session. Most coins are flat or, in some cases, underperforming.

Amidst this unclear picture, what am I looking at? Two things:

1) the BTC Dominance Index, as a gauge for how alts are performing. We briefly crossed a massive resistance two weeks ago, at 72, and then closed down and now safely at 67.

2) the dollar index, simply because I remain convinced that the performance of BTC, to the up or downside, is strongly impacted by investor’s perception of the dollar (the world’s main currency). Should we see a massive strengthening of the dollar, I think we would see a retracement in BTC.

In the meantime, the interest for BTC isn’t dying. Grayscale saw their largest single day asset raise, with more than $700 million pouring into their funds. As the demand for BTC grows, one has to ask if the supply will cope.